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Tomments #5:
The New Relationship Between Price and Value [1 page, 09/26/00]
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Over the last few years, the internet has greatly empowered individual investors, by giving them access to better investment information and resources, and this trend will certainly continue. But I believe that in one important respect, investing is getting harder rather than easier.
Until recently, a company's stock price was a reflection of the company's value. The correlation wasn't exact, of course, especially not in the short term. As Ben Graham famously noted, the market is a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term. In other words, a stock's price eventually reflects the underlying company's value, even if it sometimes takes many years for this to happen. While this difference between long and short term effects is interesting, the part of Graham's assertion that's relevant to this discussion is that the cause and effect relationship operates in one direction only, from value to price.
Another legendary investor, Warren Buffett, has echoed this belief that value drives price. Here are a few quotes from the master himself:
- "The market is there only as a reference point to see if anybody is offering to do anything foolish. When we invest in stocks, we invest in businesses."
- "The most common cause of low prices is pessimism: sometimes pervasive, sometimes specific to a company or industry. We want to do business in such an environment, not because we like pessimism but because we like the prices it produces. It's optimism that is the enemy of the rational buyer."
- "Stocks are simple. All you do is buy shares in a great business for less than the business is intrinsically worth, with managers of highest integrity and ability. Then you own those shares forever."
- "If the business does well, the stock eventually follows."
The implication here is that if you buy stocks that are selling significantly below their intrinsic value and hold them for long enough, eventually you will profit handsomely, either after other investors realize the company's true value or after you start collecting dividends when the company has grown so profitable that it no longer needs to pump all its earnings back into its operations.
While Buffett's statements were largely true when he made them, things have changed significantly over the last few years. The fundamental difference is that the cause-and-effect interaction between value and price no longer flows just in one direction. Value still affects price, of course, but now price is starting to affect value as well. There are several forces contributing to this new dynamic:
- Unprofitable startups which are burning through their capital need to have enough money to survive until profitability. For this reason, a cash infusion can often add more value to the company than its dollar amount, it can save a company from being virtually worthless. For example, if Amazon didn't have nearly a billion dollars in the bank, its market cap would fall by a lot more than a billion.
- Companies with strong stock prices are able to raise capital more cheaply through secondary offerings. Secondary offerings are certainly not new, but their popularity has more than doubled in the last five years, from $55 billion in 1995 to an annualized $138 billion this year (source: http://www.marketdata.nasdaq.com/asp/Sec3SEO.asp). Additionally, due to the tremendous recent increase in volatility, the strength of a company's stock at any given time can make a big difference in that company's ability to raise cash in the secondary markets.
- Public perception is affected by a company's stock price, and this in turn affects brand strength and customer behavior. Companies look at other companies' stock movements for guidance as to the overall strength of those companies' businesses. If a company's stock is strong and rising, other companies are more likely to want to partner with them and/or buy products from them. This is especially true for markets in which customers are making a large, long-term commitment to a vendor and need assurance that the vendor will survive at least as long as the customer needs them.
- Stock options are becoming increasingly popular as a tool to motivate employees, but they can achieve this aim only if the company's stock price continues rising. If the stock price drops, the options can become virtually worthless and employee retention becomes more difficult.
- Companies are more acquisitive than ever, and companies which have strong stock prices are able to acquire other companies more cheaply. As an extreme example: if a sufficiently large group of investors conspired to prop up a company's stock price, that company could use its stock as currency to buy other companies. Even if the company had no assets and no real value, it could grow into its inflated price through acquisitions. (Note that this extreme case is illegal, but some companies employ this tactic to varying degrees already, legally.)
- Average stock price per share is increasing. The stocks comprising the Nasdaq 100 now have an average price per share of a little more than 60, more than a 50% increase in the last five years (not adjusting for splits, obviously), as companies are waiting longer to split. They are doing this because they realize that some investors incorrectly correlate a high price per share with a strong company.
- Analysts tend to jump on the hot stock bandwagon, issuing a buy recommendation after a stock has already risen significantly, so a strong stock price tends to generate additional positive buzz. This is why companies going public often design their IPOs to jump the first day, believing that the PR a first-day pop generates is worth more than the money they leave on the table by underpricing their shares.
- There are now a lot more momentum investors than value investors. Momentum investors tend to buy stocks that have recently risen, and sell or avoid stocks that have recently fallen. Value investing is considered by many to be a quaint, old-fashioned strategy, partially because it's less glamorous than growth investing and partially because it hasn't been working very well recently.
Because of these factors, price is now affecting value. Specifically, an increase in price almost magically creates value, and a decrease in price just as quickly eliminates value.
Of course, I'm not claiming that these factors didn't exist in the past. Many of them have always played some small role, but now they are becoming increasingly important as they become more prevalent. While it's difficult to predict whether some of these factors are temporary or permanent, I do think that collectively they will continue to increase in importance. For example, the popularity of stock options remains on an upward trajectory, and companies with strong stock prices will continue to have an advantage in the acquisition game.
I'm also not claiming that these factors are now important for every stock and every sector. The pearls of wisdom I quoted from Buffett haven't ceased to be useful, because they still apply to certain companies and sectors, specifically those that experience only small effects from the above forces. By and large, the companies that are most heavily affected by these factors are those in the technology sector. Technology companies tend to rely more heavily on stock options, PR, and acquisitions, and tend to be more cash-starved, than low-tech or non-tech companies. There are obviously exceptions to this rule, but it is a categorization that is pretty consistently accurate.
To summarize, investing has fundamentally changed. Previously, value drove price. Now, value drives price and price drives value. When one thing affects another, the relationship is fairly simple. When two things affect each other, the relationship can get quite complex.
So what does this mean for investors? It means that investing in a company whose stock price can affect the company's underlying value is more risky and more difficult. At first glance, this might seem like a negative, but it may actually be a positive. After all, the task has gotten harder for everyone, not just you, so you just need to understand the new rules better than the person on the other side of your trades. Also, the increased uncertainty means there is more upside potential for investors who master these rules.
So for those adventurous investors among you, how should your strategy be affected by this new world of price-driven investing? Here are a few tips:
- For companies that aren't significantly affected by these factors, value investing still makes sense. Look for companies that aren't negatively impacted when their stock price falls well below their underlying value. For example: companies that don't plan to use their stock as acquisition currency; companies that have enough cash in their coffers to weather a storm and won't have to raise money in the public markets by selling shares while they're cheap (the recent cash positions of the Nasdaq 100 stocks can be found at http://www.marketsigns.com/nasd_cash.asp); and companies that don't give substantial stock options to their employees.
- For companies that are significantly affected by these factors, if you try value investing, be aware of these issues and be sure to factor them in. Value investors often get hurt when they venture into the tech sector, and this explains why. Companies whose stock prices fall are at a strategic disadvantage for the reasons described above, and it can be a difficult hole to dig out of. If you do decide to shop for bargains in sectors that are affected by these factors, remember that the risk is larger than it otherwise would be, so in order for the investment to be worthwhile you should expect a larger reward to justify taking the larger risk.
- If you're a momentum investor rather than a value investor, there are still lessons here. I've never been a fan of momentum investing, because it flatly contradicts what I felt was the most obvious rule of investing: if the price of something goes up, that thing becomes less of a bargain. But in light of the present discussion, it appears that this is no longer always the case. As the price of a stock goes up, it's possible that sometimes the value gets pulled up along with it. This might explain why momentum investing does sometimes work in the tech sector. However, I'm not planning to scrap my current investment strategy and replace it with a momentum-based strategy, because I suspect that the amount the value changes is usually less than the amount the price changes, so as the price goes up the stock still does become relatively more expensive, even if not by as much as it would initially appear. Similarly, I'm not recommending momentum investing, because it's too easy to over-apply the principle
and jump lemming-like onto the latest big thing, forgetting that even in this new world, price is still affected by value, even if it sometimes takes awhile to overpower the upward momentum.
- Think in terms of feedback loops. As part of your overall analysis of a company, think about how a rise or fall in price might affect the company's underlying value. Understand what these changes mean and incorporate them into your overall investment strategy before other investors do.
Another way to look at this development is that investors now have a higher level of empowerment. Investors have always been able to vote with their feet, and companies have always been affected to some degree by their stock prices (which investors set through their buying and selling behavior). But due to the above factors, investors have more control over a company's success than ever before, since they can give a company a major strategic advantage by driving up the stock price, or put them at a disadvantage by not doing so. Of course, individual investors don't have all the newfound control, since they comprise only a portion of the corporate ownership and only a portion of the demand for the shares. Institutional investors, such as mutual funds, are important as well. But the point is that both groups now have more power to affect a company's success. That power is distributed in proportion to their holdings, so institutions have a lot of power, but retail investors do, too. This new power is a
double-edged sword, however, in that while retail investors collectively now have a lot of power, individually each of them doesn't, and so each is at the mercy of the rest of the group. Previously an investor had to worry about whether the company they were investing in would inflict damage upon itself. Now that investor also has to worry about whether other investors will inflict damage upon the company. I look forward to seeing whether this change has a net positive or negative impact on the business world.back to top
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